Expected loss
The best estimate of the average annual cost of a risk, which a fairly priced premium approximates. When a risk is retained rather than transferred, the expected loss is the first of the three components (with the reserve's opportunity cost and volatility) that make up the true cost of carrying it yourself.
Defined in 2 GAGE programs, which carry 5 distinct definitions of it. The wording above is taught in Certified AI Governance Professional (CAIGP).
How each discipline defines it
The same term does different work depending on who is using it. These are the definitions as each program teaches them, unedited.
The best estimate of the average annual cost of a risk, which a fairly priced premium approximates. When a risk is retained rather than transferred, the expected loss is the first of the three components (with the reserve's opportunity cost and volatility) that make up the true cost of carrying it yourself.
The average loss per period from a risk, computed as frequency per period times mean severity per event. An average across many repetitions, not a forecast of any particular period.
Probability of a loss event in a period multiplied by the severity if it occurs. A price computed for comparison, never a prediction of what will happen in any single year.
Probability multiplied by severity, giving the long run average cost per period. Taught in Topic 6.1 and used here as the hand calculation that verifies the model.
Frequency multiplied by severity over a stated period, taught in full in Topic 6.1. The quantity a control acts on, through one of its two terms.
Where it is taught
The exact lessons this term appears in. The first module of every program is free with a free account.
- Insuring the risk: what AI liability coverage exists, what it excludes, and what that tells you · The Money: Budgets, ROI, and Risk, Certified AI Governance Professional (CAIGP)
- Mission, strategy, and risk-adjusted decision making · Enterprise Governance, Strategy, and Decision Rights, Certified Enterprise Governance, Risk and Compliance Professional (CEGP)
- Probability, frequency, severity, and expected loss · Quantitative Risk and Decision Science, Certified Enterprise Governance, Risk and Compliance Professional (CEGP)
- Monte Carlo simulation for decision support · Quantitative Risk and Decision Science, Certified Enterprise Governance, Risk and Compliance Professional (CEGP)
- Control economics · Quantitative Risk and Decision Science, Certified Enterprise Governance, Risk and Compliance Professional (CEGP)
Where it shows up at work
A definition is where Expected loss starts. The lessons above teach it inside the competencies below, which are what job descriptions ask for and what the GAGE credential records. Every link here is drawn from the same careers map that builds a role's readiness check.
Reviews purpose, data, affected people, accuracy, bias, security, oversight, vendors and law for a use case, scores likelihood and impact, and documents residual risk.
One lesson on this page teach it as a primary outcome.
Keeps the living record: each risk with a named owner, rating, treatment, residual risk, monitoring metric, threshold and review date.
One lesson on this page teach it as a primary outcome.
Roles that hire for it
Each role page shows the full competency set, what the seat decides, and a readiness check against your own evidence.
- Chief Risk Officer, AI risk editionneeds it at depth
- AI Risk Managerneeds it at depth · 2 open postings this week
- Cybersecurity Risk Analystneeds working knowledge
- AI Governance Managerneeds it at depth
- Third-Party AI Risk Analystneeds working knowledge
- Chief Privacy Officer, AI privacy editionneeds it at depth
How job descriptions say it
Postings rarely use the textbook word. These are the phrases the careers map reads as asking for the competencies above.
Where the frameworks place it: NIST AI RMF MAP and MEASURE; ISO/IEC 42005; EU AI Act Article 27; NIST AI RMF MANAGE.
One interview question about it
Take me through an AI risk and impact assessment you would run for a hiring tool. What do you assess, and who signs?
Asked of candidates for ai risk and impact assessment. Answering it in your own words is exactly how a GAGE topic is passed, and the credential records the pass where an employer can check it.
If you come from another field
Some backgrounds already carry this competency, and the readiness check gives credit for it.
- Privacy and data protection carries it as work you can show: A DPIA is an impact assessment; the AI version adds accuracy, bias and oversight.
- Internal audit and IT audit carries it as a claim to back up: Remediation tracking is familiar from follow-up work.
Terms it appears with
Not an alphabetical neighbourhood: these are the terms taught in the same lessons, ranked by how often they appear together.