Hindsight bias

The tendency, once an outcome is known, to see the warning signs as obvious and the right choice as easy, when neither was clear at the time. It tempts a review toward "they should have known" and away from the system fix, and its antidote is the second story plus an instrument that makes the sign impossible to miss.

The tendency to judge a past event as having been more predictable, before it happened, than it actually was, once the outcome is already known. A post-incident review that does not guard against this tends to treat ordinary decisions as obviously negligent in retrospect.

the tendency, when recalling a past decision, to overstate how foreseeable or deliberate the outcome felt at the time, making a judgment call sound wiser in retrospect than it actually was in the moment.

The well-documented tendency to remember an event as more predictable, and one's own perception of it as clearer, than it actually was, once the outcome is known. It is a reason sincere witnesses misremember incidents and a reason the contemporaneous record is trusted over later recollection.