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Method

How the Doom Number is built

The ledger is a set of verdicts about documents, not a set of opinions. Each row says whether an instrument exists, was fetched at its publisher, was only reported or announced, was searched for and not found, or is a question nobody has answered. Every figure carries its publisher and the date it was true, and nothing on the site prints a number that was not read from a source.

The five verdicts

One color language, learned once

A row is a claim about a document. The verdict says how far the ledger got with it. A verified row was fetched at the body that issued it and is quoted from that text. A reported row rests on a reliable secondary source because the primary could not be reached, and it is never printed as verified. An announced row records that a body said it will act and stops there, because a statement of intent is not an instrument. An absent row records a search that found nothing, and the search itself is written into the record so a reader can repeat it. An open row is a question with no settled answer, which the ledger poses and does not answer.

  • Verified

    The document exists. The ledger fetched it at its publisher and quotes it.

  • Reported, primary not reached

    A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

  • Announced, no document yet

    A body has said it will act. No document exists yet, so the row records the statement and nothing more.

  • Absent

    The ledger searched and found no instrument. The record says where it looked and when.

  • Open question

    No settled answer exists. The ledger poses the question, links the live debate, and does not answer it.

The 6 kinds

What a row is about

  • Stated probability

    What number did a named person put on catastrophe, and when?

  • Characterization

    What did a named person say in words, without a number?

  • Report finding

    What did a multi author report conclude about likelihood or timing?

  • Survey

    What did a survey with public methodology find, and of whom?

  • Signed statement

    What did a group of named people sign, and when?

  • Open question

    What has nobody settled about these numbers?

A record may also carry dimensions: role at the time, where it was said, timeframe named, stated basis, later revision. Each dimension is stated (the document says it), silent (the ledger read the document and it does not), reported or open, and points at the source that shows it. The grid on the hub counts them, so the gap between what the documents state and what they leave unsaid is a number rather than a claim.

Sources

Primary first, and the difference is printed

A primary source is the body that made the claim: the regulator's own release, the standards body's own text, the company's own terms or announcement, the law as published, the report as issued, the court's own decision. Trade press is a lead, never a source. Where a primary document could not be reached, the row says so, every source is labeled secondary, and a verified verdict is not given.

Every figure on the ledger is a number a source printed, in the unit the source used, with the date it was true beside it. The ledger never sums figures from different sources, never converts one unit into another, and never prints a forecast as a fact. A legal application date is a fact and appears; an expected publication date is a claim with an expiry and does not.

What the ledger refuses

The gate that runs before every deploy

A check runs against the dataset before any change ships. It fails on an empty dataset, on a record without an https source and a date, on a verified record without a primary source, on a reported record that carries one, on an absent record without a written search, on a figure or a dimension that points at no source, on a kind or a jurisdiction the dataset does not label, on any promised month or year, on an answer under thirty or over eighty words, and on any dash in rendered copy. The check plants sixteen broken records and must catch every one before it is allowed to look at the real data, because a check that has only ever passed is not evidence.

As of 16 September 2026, 24 records carry 18 primary sources, 22 figures and 116 dimensions. Those numbers are counted from the dataset at build time, like every other number on this tool.

Cadence

Checked weekly

The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public. A change to a record moves its last modified date, appears in the changelog, and moves the sitemap date for that page alone. Something missing or wrong is a bug, and we want to hear about it.

Cite this page

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), how the doom number is built.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). How the Doom Number is built. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/method
MLA
"How the Doom Number is built." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/method.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "How the Doom Number is built." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/method.
Permalink
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Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

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