Kinds
Doom Number: every kind of record
6 kinds of record as of September 2026: stated probability 8, characterization 8, report finding 1, survey 2, signed statement 3, open question 2. Each kind answers one question, and each has a page listing every record of that kind.
Stated probability
What number did a named person put on catastrophe, and when?
8 records
Characterization
What did a named person say in words, without a number?
8 records
Report finding
What did a multi author report conclude about likelihood or timing?
1 record
Survey
What did a survey with public methodology find, and of whom?
2 records
Signed statement
What did a group of named people sign, and when?
3 records
Open question
What has nobody settled about these numbers?
2 records
Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.
Back to the full ledger.
Readers of this also ask
GAGE briefings tell you which AI regulation deadlines are coming, what they actually require of you, and when a program opens.