Kinds
Doom Number: every kind of record
6 kinds of record as of September 2026: stated probability 8, characterization 8, report finding 1, survey 2, signed statement 3, open question 2. Each kind answers one question, and each has a page listing every record of that kind.
Stated probability
What number did a named person put on catastrophe, and when?
8 records
Characterization
What did a named person say in words, without a number?
8 records
Report finding
What did a multi author report conclude about likelihood or timing?
1 record
Survey
What did a survey with public methodology find, and of whom?
2 records
Signed statement
What did a group of named people sign, and when?
3 records
Open question
What has nobody settled about these numbers?
2 records
Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.
Back to the full ledger.
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