Stated probability

What number did a named person put on catastrophe, and when?

8 records of kind stated probability are on the Doom Number as of September 2026: 2 verified, 5 reported, 0 announced, 1 absent, 0 open. By jurisdiction: United States 6, Canada 2.

Stated probability

8 records, newest first

AbsentStated probabilityODDS-2026-0024
Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026
United States · verified 16 September 2026
AP via ABC News and PBS NewsHour, 14 September 2026: an Anthropic researcher, Coxon, estimated a 10 percent chance of AI causing human extinction within the next decade.
Reported, primary not reachedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0016
Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023
United States · verified 16 September 2026
Fortune, 3 May 2023, by Tristan Bove, quotes Christiano on Bankless: I think maybe there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover, with many, most humans dead.
VerifiedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0015
Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026
United States · verified 16 September 2026
The Diary of a CEO episode page (Apple Podcasts listing), released 13 July 2026, describes Kokotajlo as a former OpenAI researcher and says he put the odds of catastrophe as high as 70 percent.
Reported, primary not reachedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0012
Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024
United States · verified 16 September 2026
Fortune, 30 October 2024, by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez: Musk said there is this sub chance, that could be 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad.
Reported, primary not reachedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0008
Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023
Canada · verified 16 September 2026
ABC News (Australia), Background Briefing, 15 July 2023, quotes Bengio: I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.
Reported, primary not reachedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0007
Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025
Canada · verified 16 September 2026
CBS News, 26 April 2025 (CBS Mornings, Analisa Novak and Brook Silva-Braga): the AI pioneer estimates a 10 to 20 percent risk that artificial intelligence will eventually take control from humans.
VerifiedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0006
Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023
United States · verified 16 September 2026
The Logan Bartlett Show's own page for episode 82 records: Dario gives a 75 to 90 percent chance that crazy tech will be built and everything will go fine, and works on reducing the 10 to 25 percent chance that disaster could occur.
Reported, primary not reachedStated probabilityODDS-2026-0001
Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026
United States · verified 16 September 2026
TechCrunch and Time quote the post: Hubinger wrote that Anthropic staff earnestly believe AI could kill all humans and that he personally puts it above 10 percent within the next decade.

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In a sentence: According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), stated probability: doom number.
APA: GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Stated probability: Doom Number. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/kinds/probability
MLA: "Stated probability: Doom Number." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/kinds/probability.
Chicago: GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Stated probability: Doom Number." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/kinds/probability.
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Last updated 16 September 2026. Every record re verified 16 September 2026. The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

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