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AbsentStated probability

Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026

Associated Press reporting carried by ABC News and PBS on 14 September 2026 says Jacob Coxon estimated a 10 percent chance of AI causing human extinction within the next decade. The ledger's reached accounts of Coxon's resignation post and interviews carry no number from him; the greater than 10 percent figure was posted by Evan Hubinger in reply to Coxon. The ledger records the attribution as one it could not find a statement for.

The verdict

Absent

The ledger searched and found no instrument. The record says where it looked and when.

Where the ledger looked: Searched 16 September 2026: TechCrunch (9 September), Time (9 September) and the LessWrong summary (10 September) for any number stated by Coxon; none found. Coxon's post at x.com/hilbertspaess/status/2097476196791709843 returned 451 to the ledger's fetch, and the xcancel mirror likewise. Searched the web for Coxon together with 10 percent and with percent chance; every hit either quotes Hubinger's post or repeats the AP sentence. The AP text at ABC News and PBS attributes the figure without a quotation.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0024
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • AP via ABC News and PBS NewsHour, 14 September 2026: an Anthropic researcher, Coxon, estimated a 10 percent chance of AI causing human extinction within the next decade.
  • TechCrunch and Time, 9 September 2026, quote Coxon's post and interview and print no probability from him.
  • The same TechCrunch and Time reports quote Evan Hubinger writing that he personally thinks it is greater than 10 percent within the next decade (ODDS-2026-0001).
  • The brief this ledger was built from also attributed the figure to Coxon; the ledger corrects it, as docs/FRONTIER-RISK-LANE-PLAN.md records.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Pretraining researcher, resigned from Anthropic on 8 September 2026Time, He helped build powerful AI at OpenAI and Anthropic. Now he's afraid it could kill us, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Where it was saidSilent
The attribution appears in AP copy of 14 September 2026; no post or interview by Coxon carrying it was foundABC News (AP), New warnings about the risks of AI to humanity revive a long running debate, secondary source, 14 September 2026.
Timeframe namedSilent
Within the next decade, in the attributed figure; none in Coxon's reached statementsABC News (AP), New warnings about the risks of AI to humanity revive a long running debate, secondary source, 14 September 2026.
Stated basisSilent
None; the figure matches Hubinger's postTime, He helped build powerful AI at OpenAI and Anthropic. Now he's afraid it could kill us, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Later revisionOpen
No correction to the AP copy found as of 2026-09-16

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

When a number moves from one name to another within a week, the reader learns how a probability travels: a figure stated by one person becomes an attribute of the news event and attaches to its most prominent name. Before weighing any figure, find the sentence in which the named person said it; if the only sentence is a reporter's, the figure belongs to the report, not the person.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. ABC News (AP), New warnings about the risks of AI to humanity revive a long running debateSecondary · 14 September 2026
  2. Time, He helped build powerful AI at OpenAI and Anthropic. Now he's afraid it could kill usSecondary · 9 September 2026
  3. TechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AISecondary · 9 September 2026

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0024 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), jacob coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by ap, no such statement found, september 2026.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0024-jacob-coxon-10-percent-figure-attributed-by-ap-not-found-in-his-statements
MLA
"Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0024-jacob-coxon-10-percent-figure-attributed-by-ap-not-found-in-his-statements.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0024-jacob-coxon-10-percent-figure-attributed-by-ap-not-found-in-his-statements.
Permalink
https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0024-jacob-coxon-10-percent-figure-attributed-by-ap-not-found-in-his-statements

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