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Reported, primary not reachedStated probability

Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026

Evan Hubinger, who leads alignment science work at Anthropic, replied on X to Jacob Coxon's resignation post of 8 September 2026 and wrote that he personally thinks the chance AI kills all humans is greater than 10 percent within the next decade. TechCrunch and Time quoted the post on 9 September. The figure is one researcher's personal estimate, stated as a lower bound, not a measurement and not a company position.

The verdict

Reported, primary not reached

A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0001
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • TechCrunch and Time quote the post: Hubinger wrote that Anthropic staff earnestly believe AI could kill all humans and that he personally puts it above 10 percent within the next decade.
  • The same post says Anthropic is trying its best but does not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence and is not clearly on track to one.
  • Time describes Hubinger as head of alignment stress testing at Anthropic; other reports call him alignment science lead.
  • The post at x.com/EvanHub/status/2097497037956891126 returned 451 and 403 to the ledger's fetches on 16 September 2026, so the statement rests on the outlets that quoted it.
  • The figure is a personal estimate with a stated timeframe and a stated outcome; the post names no method behind the number.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Alignment science lead, Anthropic (Time: head of alignment stress testing)Time, He helped build powerful AI at OpenAI and Anthropic. Now he's afraid it could kill us, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Where it was saidReported
Post on X replying to Jacob Coxon's resignation post, quoted by TechCrunch and Time on 9 September 2026TechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AI, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Timeframe namedReported
Within the next decadeTechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AI, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Stated basisReported
None stated; the post gives the number as a personal beliefTechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AI, secondary source, 9 September 2026.
Later revisionOpen
No later revision found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 10 percent

    Stated lower bound of the probability that AI kills all humans within the next decade

    TechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AI, secondary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

A lower bound from one named researcher tells you what that person believes and how they choose to say it in public; it does not tell you how the number was reached, what would move it, or whether colleagues share it. The stated timeframe and outcome make this one of the more specific statements on the ledger, which is what lets a reader compare it with another statement at all. Weigh it as testimony about a belief, not as a measured rate.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. TechCrunch, Gambling with our lives: Anthropic researcher quits, warns against self improving AISecondary · 9 September 2026
  2. Time, He helped build powerful AI at OpenAI and Anthropic. Now he's afraid it could kill usSecondary · 9 September 2026
  3. LessWrong, Jacob Coxon warns of human extinction and triggers a debateSecondary · 10 September 2026

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0001 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), evan hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance ai kills all humans within a decade, september 2026.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0001-evan-hubinger-greater-than-10-percent-within-decade-september-2026
MLA
"Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0001-evan-hubinger-greater-than-10-percent-within-decade-september-2026.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0001-evan-hubinger-greater-than-10-percent-within-decade-september-2026.
Permalink
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