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Reported, primary not reachedStated probability

Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023

Paul Christiano, then head of the Alignment Research Center and formerly lead of the language model alignment team at OpenAI, said on the Bankless podcast released 24 April 2023 that there is maybe a 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, and that overall it might be up to a 50 50 chance of doom shortly after human level systems exist. Fortune reported the remarks on 3 May 2023.

The verdict

Reported, primary not reached

A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0016
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • Fortune, 3 May 2023, by Tristan Bove, quotes Christiano on Bankless: I think maybe there is a 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover, with many, most humans dead.
  • Fortune also quotes: overall, maybe you are getting more up to a 50 50 chance of doom shortly after you have AI systems that are human level.
  • The Bankless episode 168, How to Solve AI Alignment with Paul Christiano, was released on 24 April 2023; the show's debrief page was reached but carries no transcript.
  • In 2024 Christiano became head of AI safety at the US AI Safety Institute; the statements predate that role.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Head, Alignment Research Center; formerly language model alignment lead, OpenAIFortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, 3 May 2023.
Where it was saidReported
Bankless podcast episode 168, released 24 April 2023, reported by Fortune on 3 May 2023Fortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, 3 May 2023.
Timeframe namedReported
Shortly after human level systems, for the 50 50 figure; none for the takeover rangeFortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, 3 May 2023.
Stated basisReported
Fortune summarises his concern as dependence on systems that stop prioritising human interestsFortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, 3 May 2023.
Later revisionOpen
No later revision found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 10 percent

    Stated lower bound of the chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, no timeframe stated

    Fortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, as of .

  2. 20 percent

    Stated upper bound of the chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, no timeframe stated

    Fortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, as of .

  3. 50 percent

    Stated chance of doom shortly after human level AI systems exist, given as 50 50

    Fortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take over, secondary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

Two numbers from one speaker in one conversation, for two differently defined outcomes, show a reader how much of a stated probability is the definition: takeover with mass death gets 10 to 20, a broader doom gets 50 50. Compare each figure only with a row that names the same outcome. The speaker later held a public safety role, which is a reason to record the statement, not a reason to weigh it as an institutional finding.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. Fortune, OpenAI's former top safety researcher says there is a 10 to 20 percent chance the tech will take overSecondary · 3 May 2023
  2. Bankless, Debrief: How to Solve AI Alignment (episode 168 page)Secondary · 24 April 2023

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0016 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), paul christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of ai takeover with many or most humans dead, april 2023.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0016-paul-christiano-10-to-20-percent-chance-of-ai-takeover-april-2023
MLA
"Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0016-paul-christiano-10-to-20-percent-chance-of-ai-takeover-april-2023.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0016-paul-christiano-10-to-20-percent-chance-of-ai-takeover-april-2023.
Permalink
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