Skip to main content

Jurisdiction

United States: Doom Number

United States carries 14 records on the Doom Number as of September 2026: 5 verified at a primary source, 8 reported, 0 announced with no document yet, 1 searched and absent, and 0 open questions. By kind: stated probability 6, characterization 7, signed statement 1.

Stated probability

6 records

Characterization

7 records

Signed statement

1 record

Answers

What people ask about United States

What number did a named person put on catastrophe, and when in United States?

Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026 (absent); Paul Christiano: 10 to 20 percent chance of AI takeover with many or most humans dead, April 2023 (reported, primary not reached); Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026 (verified); Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024 (reported, primary not reached); Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023 (verified); Evan Hubinger: greater than 10 percent chance AI kills all humans within a decade, September 2026 (reported, primary not reached). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.

What did a named person say in words, without a number in United States?

Jack Clark: we have seen warning shots and that gives us a window to act, September 2026 (reported, primary not reached); Walter Isaacson: this is the first thing that just totally scares me, July 2026 (reported, primary not reached); Sam Altman: the pacing of AI development should be slower than it otherwise could be, September 2026 (reported, primary not reached); Eliezer Yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart AI is that everyone dies, March 2023 (verified); Dario Amodei: we must slow the pace at which we improve AI capabilities, September 2026 (verified); Adam Khoja: current models are basically nation state level hackers, September 2026 (reported, primary not reached); Jacob Coxon: labs are racing to self improving superintelligence and gambling with our lives, September 2026 (reported, primary not reached). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.

What did a group of named people sign, and when in United States?

Pacing the Frontier statement: 1,386 industry signatories ask for tools to pace automated AI development, July 2026 (verified). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.

What has nobody settled in United States?

No open question for United States is on the ledger yet.

What does United States not have?

Jacob Coxon: a 10 percent extinction estimate attributed to him by AP, no such statement found, September 2026. Each absent record says where the ledger looked and when, so the search can be repeated.

Every surface

Cut the ledger another way

By jurisdiction

By kind

Verdicts

Cite this page

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), united states on the doom number.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). United States on the Doom Number. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/us
MLA
"United States on the Doom Number." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/us.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "United States on the Doom Number." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/us.
Permalink
https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/us

Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

Back to the full ledger.

GAGE briefings tell you which AI regulation deadlines are coming, what they actually require of you, and when a program opens.

Powered by GAGE, free EU AI Act tools from the Global Academy of Generative-AI Education
CallEmailHelp