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Eliezer Yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart AI is that everyone dies, March 2023

Eliezer Yudkowsky, of the Machine Intelligence Research Institute, wrote in Time on 29 March 2023 that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die. He gave no percentage, adding that he means the obvious thing that would happen rather than a remote chance. The ledger records it as a characterization with no figure.

The verdict

Verified

The document exists. The ledger fetched it at its publisher and quotes it.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0010
Kind
Characterization
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • Time, 29 March 2023, by Eliezer Yudkowsky, titled Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down.
  • The essay states that the most likely result of building a superhumanly smart AI, under anything remotely like the current circumstances, is that literally everyone on Earth will die.
  • It gives no percentage, and frames the claim as the obvious thing that would happen, not as a remote chance.
  • The essay was written in response to the Future of Life Institute pause letter of 22 March 2023 (ODDS-2026-0018), which he did not sign, arguing it asked for too little.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeStated
Co founder and research lead, Machine Intelligence Research InstituteTime, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down, primary source, 29 March 2023.
Where it was saidStated
Essay in Time, 29 March 2023Time, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down, primary source, 29 March 2023.
Timeframe namedStated
None stated; conditional on building superhumanly smart AI under current circumstancesTime, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down, primary source, 29 March 2023.
Stated basisStated
His argument in the essay that alignment is unsolved and cannot be solved on the current timelineTime, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All Down, primary source, 29 March 2023.
Later revisionOpen
No later revision found as of 2026-09-16

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

A most likely claim without a number is a stronger statement than any percentage on this ledger and also a less comparable one, because it names no probability and no date, only a conditional. A reader weighing it should notice that the author deliberately refuses the framing of odds; the statement can be engaged on its argument, which is published, but it cannot be placed on a scale next to a survey median.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. Time, Eliezer Yudkowsky, Pausing AI Developments Isn't Enough. We Need to Shut it All DownPrimary · 29 March 2023

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0010 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), eliezer yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart ai is that everyone dies, march 2023.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Eliezer Yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart AI is that everyone dies, March 2023. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0010-eliezer-yudkowsky-most-likely-result-everyone-on-earth-dies-march-2023
MLA
"Eliezer Yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart AI is that everyone dies, March 2023." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0010-eliezer-yudkowsky-most-likely-result-everyone-on-earth-dies-march-2023.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Eliezer Yudkowsky: the most likely result of building superhumanly smart AI is that everyone dies, March 2023." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0010-eliezer-yudkowsky-most-likely-result-everyone-on-earth-dies-march-2023.
Permalink
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