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Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?

Rows on this ledger put 10 to 20 percent on AI takeover with many humans dead, 10 to 25 percent on things going badly, 70 percent on something like AIs taking over, and a median of 5 percent on extremely bad outcomes. The outcomes differ, the horizons are mostly unstated, and the 2023 survey found wording alone moves the share giving at least 10 percent from 38 to 51. Whether any two rows can be compared is not settled.

The verdict

Open question

No settled answer exists. The ledger poses the question, links the live debate, and does not answer it.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0022
Kind
Open question
Jurisdiction
Global
Last verified
Added
  • Grace et al. 2023 report that between 38 and 51 percent of respondents gave at least 10 percent to outcomes as bad as extinction depending on the question asked, a framing effect inside one survey.
  • Kokotajlo's 70 percent is for something like AIs taking over and, by his own clarification, not for extinction specifically (ODDS-2026-0015); Christiano's 10 to 20 is for takeover with many or most humans dead (ODDS-2026-0016).
  • Amodei's 10 to 25 (ODDS-2026-0006) and Musk's 10 to 20 (ODDS-2026-0012) name no outcome more specific than things going badly and state no horizon.
  • The International AI Safety Report 2026 describes likelihood, nature and timing as unusually ambiguous, which is a statement that the comparison itself lacks a settled basis (ODDS-2026-0003).

Dimension by dimension

3 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Timeframe namedOpen
Stated in two rows (within the next decade; shortly after human level systems); absent in most
Stated basisOpen
One row shows arithmetic (ODDS-2026-0008); the surveys publish methods; the rest state none
Later revisionOpen
Open as of 2026-09-16

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

Before giving weight to a difference between two numbers, check that they refer to the same outcome over the same horizon; on this ledger they usually do not, which is why it computes no average and ranks nobody. A reader who wants to compare should compare definitions first, and treat two numbers with different definitions as two different claims rather than as agreement or disagreement.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. Grace et al., Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI (arXiv 2401.02843)Primary · 5 January 2024
  2. International AI Safety Report 2026 (arXiv 2602.21012), page 76Primary · 24 February 2026

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0022 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0022-question-are-two-stated-percentages-comparable-without-timeframe-or-definition
MLA
"Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0022-question-are-two-stated-percentages-comparable-without-timeframe-or-definition.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0022-question-are-two-stated-percentages-comparable-without-timeframe-or-definition.
Permalink
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Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

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