Open question

What has nobody settled about these numbers?

2 records of kind open question are on the Doom Number as of September 2026: 0 verified, 0 reported, 0 announced, 0 absent, 2 open. By jurisdiction: Global 2.

Open question

2 records, newest first

Open questionOpen questionODDS-2026-0023
Open question: when a frontier lab researcher states a personal probability, what does it tell you about the lab?
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Hubinger wrote that he personally thinks the chance is greater than 10 percent within the next decade and that Anthropic does not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence (ODDS-2026-0001).
Open questionOpen questionODDS-2026-0022
Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Grace et al. 2023 report that between 38 and 51 percent of respondents gave at least 10 percent to outcomes as bad as extinction depending on the question asked, a framing effect inside one survey.

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In a sentence: According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), open question: doom number.
APA: GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Open question: Doom Number. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/kinds/question
MLA: "Open question: Doom Number." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/kinds/question.
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Last updated 16 September 2026. Every record re verified 16 September 2026. The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

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