Jurisdiction
Global: Doom Number
Global carries 7 records on the Doom Number as of September 2026: 5 verified at a primary source, 0 reported, 0 announced with no document yet, 0 searched and absent, and 2 open questions. By kind: report finding 1, survey 2, signed statement 2, open question 2.
Report finding
1 record
International AI Safety Report 2026: likelihood, nature and timing of loss of control unusually ambiguous, February 2026
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Page 76 of the report reads that a key challenge for policymakers is preparing for a risk whose likelihood, nature, and timing remains unusually ambiguous; the ledger read the sentence in the PDF at arXiv 2602.21012 and at the report's own site.
Survey
2 records
Grace et al. 2023 survey of 2,778 AI authors: median 5 percent for extremely bad outcomes, October 2023
Global · verified 16 September 2026
The paper, Thousands of AI Authors on the Future of AI (arXiv 2401.02843), reports 2,778 responses from 18,459 working addresses, a 15 percent response rate, fielded 10 to 24 October 2023.
AI Impacts 2022 expert survey: median 5 percent for an extremely bad outcome such as human extinction, August 2022
Global · verified 16 September 2026
The survey page: approximately 4,271 researchers who published at NeurIPS or ICML in 2021 were invited; 738 responses were received, some partial, a 17 percent response rate.
Signed statement
2 records
Future of Life Institute: pause for at least six months the training of systems more powerful than GPT-4, March 2023
Global · verified 16 September 2026
The letter at futureoflife.org, dated 22 March 2023: we call on all AI labs to immediately pause for at least 6 months the training of AI systems more powerful than GPT-4.
Center for AI Safety Statement on AI Risk: extinction risk a global priority alongside pandemics and nuclear war, May 2023
Global · verified 16 September 2026
The statement text at safe.ai: mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.
Open question
2 records
Open question: when a frontier lab researcher states a personal probability, what does it tell you about the lab?
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Hubinger wrote that he personally thinks the chance is greater than 10 percent within the next decade and that Anthropic does not yet have a plan to solve alignment for superintelligence (ODDS-2026-0001).
Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Grace et al. 2023 report that between 38 and 51 percent of respondents gave at least 10 percent to outcomes as bad as extinction depending on the question asked, a framing effect inside one survey.
Answers
What people ask about Global
What did a multi author report conclude about likelihood or timing in Global?
International AI Safety Report 2026: likelihood, nature and timing of loss of control unusually ambiguous, February 2026 (verified). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.
What did a survey with public methodology find, and of whom in Global?
Grace et al. 2023 survey of 2,778 AI authors: median 5 percent for extremely bad outcomes, October 2023 (verified); AI Impacts 2022 expert survey: median 5 percent for an extremely bad outcome such as human extinction, August 2022 (verified). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.
What did a group of named people sign, and when in Global?
Future of Life Institute: pause for at least six months the training of systems more powerful than GPT-4, March 2023 (verified); Center for AI Safety Statement on AI Risk: extinction risk a global priority alongside pandemics and nuclear war, May 2023 (verified). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.
What has nobody settled about these numbers in Global?
Open question: when a frontier lab researcher states a personal probability, what does it tell you about the lab? (open question); Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe? (open question). Each record page quotes the document and says what it changes for a reader deciding how much weight to give a number.
What has nobody settled in Global?
Open question: when a frontier lab researcher states a personal probability, what does it tell you about the lab?; Open question: are two named people's percentages comparable when neither states a timeframe or a definition of catastrophe?. The ledger poses these and does not answer them.
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- In a sentence
- According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), global on the doom number.
- APA
- GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Global on the Doom Number. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/global
- MLA
- "Global on the Doom Number." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/global.
- Chicago
- GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Global on the Doom Number." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/global.
- Permalink
- https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/jurisdictions/global
Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.
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