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Reported, primary not reachedStated probability

Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024

Elon Musk, chief executive of Tesla and founder of xAI, said at the Future Investment Initiative in Riyadh on 29 October 2024 that AI is most likely going to be great and that there is some chance, which could be 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad. Fortune reported the remark on 30 October 2024. The outcome is described only as going bad, with no timeframe, and the figure is his own estimate.

The verdict

Reported, primary not reached

A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0012
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • Fortune, 30 October 2024, by Marco Quiroz-Gutierrez: Musk said there is this sub chance, that could be 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad.
  • The remark was made at Saudi Arabia's Future Investment Initiative summit in Riyadh on 29 October 2024, where he also said AI is most likely going to be great.
  • The outcome is stated only as going bad; no definition and no timeframe accompany the range.
  • Bloomberg's video page carrying the remark returned 403 to the ledger's fetches on 16 September 2026.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Chief executive, Tesla; founder, xAIFortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises money, secondary source, 30 October 2024.
Where it was saidReported
Future Investment Initiative, Riyadh, 29 October 2024, reported by Fortune on 30 October 2024Fortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises money, secondary source, 30 October 2024.
Timeframe namedReported
None statedFortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises money, secondary source, 30 October 2024.
Stated basisOpen
None stated; at Cannes Lions in June 2024 he said he tended to agree with Geoffrey Hinton's range, per contemporaneous reports the ledger did not reach
Later revisionOpen
No later revision found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 10 percent

    Stated lower bound of the chance that it goes bad, no timeframe stated

    Fortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises money, secondary source, as of .

  2. 20 percent

    Stated upper bound of the chance that it goes bad, no timeframe stated

    Fortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises money, secondary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

A range with an undefined outcome tells you the speaker's mood about the technology more than anything about a specific event; going bad can mean many things, and a reader cannot compare it with a row that names extinction or takeover within a decade. It is recorded because the speaker runs an AI company and the number travels widely; weigh it as sentiment from an interested party, stated in passing.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. Fortune, Elon Musk says AI could go bad and be an existential threat, as xAI raises moneySecondary · 30 October 2024

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0012 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), elon musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, october 2024.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0012-elon-musk-10-to-20-percent-chance-it-goes-bad-october-2024
MLA
"Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0012-elon-musk-10-to-20-percent-chance-it-goes-bad-october-2024.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Elon Musk: some chance, 10 to 20 percent, that it goes bad, October 2024." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0012-elon-musk-10-to-20-percent-chance-it-goes-bad-october-2024.
Permalink
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