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Reported, primary not reachedStated probability

Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025

Geoffrey Hinton, emeritus professor at the University of Toronto and 2024 Nobel laureate in physics, is reported by CBS News on 26 April 2025 to estimate a 10 to 20 percent risk that artificial intelligence will eventually take control from humans. CBS paraphrases rather than quotes the figure and names no timeframe. Earlier reports of the same range on BBC Radio 4 in December 2024 were not reached at a primary.

The verdict

Reported, primary not reached

A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0007
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
Canada
Last verified
Added
  • CBS News, 26 April 2025 (CBS Mornings, Analisa Novak and Brook Silva-Braga): the AI pioneer estimates a 10 to 20 percent risk that artificial intelligence will eventually take control from humans.
  • The CBS piece paraphrases the range; it prints no verbatim sentence from Hinton containing the numbers and states no timeframe.
  • Hinton is the first named signatory of the May 2023 Center for AI Safety statement (ODDS-2026-0017).
  • Reports of the same range with a 30 year timeframe on BBC Radio 4's Today programme, 27 December 2024, exist in outlets the ledger could not fetch; the programme audio was not reached.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Emeritus professor of computer science, University of Toronto; Nobel laureate in physics 2024CBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, 26 April 2025.
Where it was saidReported
CBS Mornings interview reported by CBS News, 26 April 2025CBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, 26 April 2025.
Timeframe namedReported
None stated in the CBS reportCBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, 26 April 2025.
Stated basisReported
None stated in the CBS reportCBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, 26 April 2025.
Later revisionOpen
The range is reported as unchanged across 2024 and 2025 interviews; no later figure found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 10 percent

    Reported lower bound of the risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, no timeframe stated

    CBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, as of .

  2. 20 percent

    Reported upper bound of the risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, no timeframe stated

    CBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humans, secondary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

A range repeated by the same person across several interviews tells you the belief is stable, which is more than a single remark tells you; it still rests on a paraphrase here, so the exact words, outcome and timeframe are the reporter's framing. A reader weighing it should separate the stability of the belief, which is documented, from the precision of the number, which is not.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. CBS News, Godfather of AI Geoffrey Hinton warns AI could take control from humansSecondary · 26 April 2025

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0007 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), geoffrey hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that ai eventually takes control from humans, april 2025.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0007-geoffrey-hinton-10-to-20-percent-ai-takes-control-april-2025
MLA
"Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0007-geoffrey-hinton-10-to-20-percent-ai-takes-control-april-2025.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0007-geoffrey-hinton-10-to-20-percent-ai-takes-control-april-2025.
Permalink
https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0007-geoffrey-hinton-10-to-20-percent-ai-takes-control-april-2025

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