Yoshua Bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really bad is not acceptable, April 2026
Yoshua Bengio, chair of the International AI Safety Report and founder of LawZero, said on the 80,000 Hours podcast published 16 April 2026 that even a 1 percent chance of something going really, really bad is not acceptable to him. The transcript is on the podcast's own site. The sentence sets a threshold he would act on; it is not an estimate of how likely the outcome is, and the ledger records no figure for it.
The verdict
Verified
The document exists. The ledger fetched it at its publisher and quotes it.
Key facts
What the sources say
- Record ID
- ODDS-2026-0009
- Kind
- Characterization
- Jurisdiction
- Canada
- Last verified
- Added
- The 80,000 Hours transcript, published 16 April 2026, quotes Bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really, really bad is not acceptable to me.
- The transcript contains no percentage estimate by Bengio of the probability of catastrophe; the remark is a tolerance threshold.
- His June 2023 FAQ on his own site gives a 95 percent confidence interval of 5 to 20 years for superhuman intelligence and argues for prudence under uncertainty, again without a probability of catastrophe.
- He chaired the International AI Safety Report 2026, which describes the likelihood of loss of control as unusually ambiguous (ODDS-2026-0003).
Dimension by dimension
5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open
Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.
- Role at the timeStated
- Chair, International AI Safety Report; professor, Universite de Montreal; founder, LawZero80,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript), primary source, 16 April 2026.
- Where it was saidStated
- 80,000 Hours podcast transcript, 16 April 202680,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript), primary source, 16 April 2026.
- Timeframe namedStated
- None stated80,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript), primary source, 16 April 2026.
- Stated basisStated
- The magnitude of the outcome, as he argues in his 2023 FAQYoshua Bengio, FAQ on Catastrophic AI Risks, primary source, 24 June 2023.
- Later revisionOpen
- No later revision found as of 2026-09-16
What it changes
For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number
A threshold statement tells you what probability a person would refuse to accept, not what probability they believe; the two are often confused in headlines, and a 1 percent threshold is not a 1 percent estimate. It is useful to a reader as a statement of decision rule, which can be argued with directly, and it explains why the same person declines to publish a single number elsewhere.
Sources
What this record was verified against
- 80,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript)Primary · 16 April 2026
- Yoshua Bengio, FAQ on Catastrophic AI RisksPrimary · 24 June 2023
Related
Records that sit beside this one
Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023
Canada · verified 16 September 2026
ABC News (Australia), Background Briefing, 15 July 2023, quotes Bengio: I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.
International AI Safety Report 2026: likelihood, nature and timing of loss of control unusually ambiguous, February 2026
Global · verified 16 September 2026
Page 76 of the report reads that a key challenge for policymakers is preparing for a risk whose likelihood, nature, and timing remains unusually ambiguous; the ledger read the sentence in the PDF at arXiv 2602.21012 and at the report's own site.
Center for AI Safety Statement on AI Risk: extinction risk a global priority alongside pandemics and nuclear war, May 2023
Global · verified 16 September 2026
The statement text at safe.ai: mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.
Geoffrey Hinton: 10 to 20 percent risk that AI eventually takes control from humans, April 2025
Canada · verified 16 September 2026
CBS News, 26 April 2025 (CBS Mornings, Analisa Novak and Brook Silva-Braga): the AI pioneer estimates a 10 to 20 percent risk that artificial intelligence will eventually take control from humans.
Cite this record
Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0009 is permanent and is never reused.
- In a sentence
- According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), yoshua bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really bad is not acceptable, april 2026.
- APA
- GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Yoshua Bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really bad is not acceptable, April 2026. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0009-yoshua-bengio-even-a-1-percent-chance-not-acceptable-april-2026
- MLA
- "Yoshua Bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really bad is not acceptable, April 2026." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0009-yoshua-bengio-even-a-1-percent-chance-not-acceptable-april-2026.
- Chicago
- GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Yoshua Bengio: even a 1 percent chance of something going really bad is not acceptable, April 2026." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0009-yoshua-bengio-even-a-1-percent-chance-not-acceptable-april-2026.
- Permalink
- https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0009-yoshua-bengio-even-a-1-percent-chance-not-acceptable-april-2026
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