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Reported, primary not reachedStated probability

Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023

Yoshua Bengio, professor at Universite de Montreal and scientific director of Mila, told ABC Radio National's Background Briefing, reported 15 July 2023, that he got around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic. He named the inputs: about 50 percent that AI reaches human level within a decade, more than 50 percent that it is turned against humanity at scale, about 50 percent that defence succeeds. The broadcast itself was not reached.

The verdict

Reported, primary not reached

A reliable secondary source carries it, and the primary document could not be reached. Printed with this label, never as verified.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0008
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
Canada
Last verified
Added
  • ABC News (Australia), Background Briefing, 15 July 2023, quotes Bengio: I got around, like, 20 per cent probability that it turns out catastrophic.
  • The report records his inputs: about 50 percent that AI reaches human level capabilities within a decade, a greater than 50 percent chance that AI or humans turn the technology against humanity at scale, and about 50 percent that humans defend successfully.
  • This is the only reached statement in which Bengio names a figure of his own; his June 2023 FAQ and his 2026 interviews give thresholds and confidence intervals, not a probability of catastrophe.
  • The ABC page is the outlet's written account of the broadcast; the audio was not fetched.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeReported
Professor, Universite de Montreal; scientific director, MilaABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trick, secondary source, 15 July 2023.
Where it was saidReported
ABC Radio National Background Briefing, reported by ABC News on 15 July 2023ABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trick, secondary source, 15 July 2023.
Timeframe namedReported
A decade for the human level input; none for the catastrophe itselfABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trick, secondary source, 15 July 2023.
Stated basisReported
Three inputs he named, each about one half, multiplied in his own wordsABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trick, secondary source, 15 July 2023.
Later revisionStated
By April 2026 he states a threshold, not a probability: even a 1 percent chance is not acceptable to him (ODDS-2026-0009)80,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript), secondary source, 16 April 2026.

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 20 percent

    Stated probability that it turns out catastrophic, no timeframe stated for the outcome

    ABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trick, secondary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

This is the rare row where the speaker shows the arithmetic, and that is what makes it useful: a reader can see which of the three inputs they would set differently and how the result would move. It remains one person's judgment on each input. The fact that the same person later chose to speak in thresholds rather than a probability is itself information about how much weight the speaker puts on the number.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. ABC News (Australia), What's your p(doom)? How AI could be learning a deceptive trickSecondary · 15 July 2023
  2. 80,000 Hours podcast, Yoshua Bengio thinks he knows how to build safe superintelligence (transcript)Secondary · 16 April 2026

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0008 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), yoshua bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, july 2023.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0008-yoshua-bengio-around-20-percent-probability-catastrophic-july-2023
MLA
"Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0008-yoshua-bengio-around-20-percent-probability-catastrophic-july-2023.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Yoshua Bengio: around 20 percent probability that it turns out catastrophic, July 2023." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0008-yoshua-bengio-around-20-percent-probability-catastrophic-july-2023.
Permalink
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