Skip to main content
VerifiedStated probability

Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023

Dario Amodei, chief executive of Anthropic, gave a range on The Logan Bartlett Show, episode 82, released 6 October 2023. The show's own episode page, dated 9 October 2023, records that he gives a 75 to 90 percent chance that the technology is built and everything goes fine and spends much of his effort reducing the 10 to 25 percent chance that disaster could occur. The range is a personal estimate with no stated timeframe.

The verdict

Verified

The document exists. The ledger fetched it at its publisher and quotes it.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0006
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • The Logan Bartlett Show's own page for episode 82 records: Dario gives a 75 to 90 percent chance that crazy tech will be built and everything will go fine, and works on reducing the 10 to 25 percent chance that disaster could occur.
  • The episode was released on 6 October 2023; the show's written page is dated 9 October 2023.
  • The page is the show's own summary, not a verbatim transcript; the ledger did not reach a transcript of the spoken words.
  • No timeframe accompanies the range on the show's page.
  • The essay of 12 September 2026 (ODDS-2026-0005) restates no number.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeStated
Chief executive, AnthropicThe Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, 9 October 2023.
Where it was saidStated
The Logan Bartlett Show, episode 82, released 6 October 2023; the show's page dated 9 October 2023The Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, 9 October 2023.
Timeframe namedStated
None statedThe Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, 9 October 2023.
Stated basisStated
None stated on the show's pageThe Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, 9 October 2023.
Later revisionOpen
Not restated in We Must Pace the Frontier, 12 September 2026 (ODDS-2026-0005); no later figure found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 10 percent

    Stated lower bound of the probability that things go badly, no timeframe stated

    The Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, as of .

  2. 25 percent

    Stated upper bound of the probability that things go badly, no timeframe stated

    The Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page), primary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

A range from a chief executive tells you how the person running one frontier company frames the stakes of his own product, which is unusual testimony and worth recording; it does not tell you how the number was formed, and a range this wide with no timeframe cannot be compared with a bounded statement such as ODDS-2026-0001. Read the two ends as the person's own uncertainty, and never take a midpoint, because the speaker did not.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. The Logan Bartlett Show, Dario Amodei's AI Predictions Through 2030 (episode 82 page)Primary · 9 October 2023

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0006 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), dario amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, october 2023.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0006-dario-amodei-10-to-25-percent-chance-things-go-badly-october-2023
MLA
"Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0006-dario-amodei-10-to-25-percent-chance-things-go-badly-october-2023.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Dario Amodei: 10 to 25 percent chance that things go badly, October 2023." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0006-dario-amodei-10-to-25-percent-chance-things-go-badly-october-2023.
Permalink
https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0006-dario-amodei-10-to-25-percent-chance-things-go-badly-october-2023

Last updated . Every record re verified . The ledger is checked weekly, every Monday, and the same day a named person states a new figure in public.

Back to the full ledger, or every record for United States and every stated probability record.

GAGE briefings tell you which AI regulation deadlines are coming, what they actually require of you, and when a program opens.

Powered by GAGE, free EU AI Act tools from the Global Academy of Generative-AI Education
CallEmailHelp