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VerifiedStated probability

Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026

Daniel Kokotajlo, executive director of the AI Futures Project and lead author of AI 2027, said on The Diary of a CEO, released 13 July 2026, that we are headed to a bad place if things do not change and he would say something like 70 percent. He clarified that he does not usually say 70 percent chance of extinction but of something like AIs taking over, a very big catastrophe. The show's episode page carries the figure.

The verdict

Verified

The document exists. The ledger fetched it at its publisher and quotes it.

Key facts

What the sources say

Record ID
ODDS-2026-0015
Kind
Stated probability
Jurisdiction
United States
Last verified
Added
  • The Diary of a CEO episode page (Apple Podcasts listing), released 13 July 2026, describes Kokotajlo as a former OpenAI researcher and says he put the odds of catastrophe as high as 70 percent.
  • In the transcript he says: I think we are headed to a bad place if things do not change. I am not confident in that. I would say something like 70 percent.
  • He clarifies in the same conversation that he does not usually say 70 percent chance of actual human extinction, but 70 percent chance of something like AIs taking over, a very big catastrophe that could lead to it.
  • He left OpenAI's governance team in 2024 and co authored the AI 2027 scenario; the AI Futures Project is his organisation.
  • No timeframe accompanies the 70 percent in the quoted exchange; elsewhere in the episode his median for superintelligence is 2029, which is a timeline, not the probability's horizon.

Dimension by dimension

5 dimensions, each one stated, silent or open

Role at the time, Where it was said, Timeframe named, Stated basis, Later revision. Stated means the document you can open below says it; silent means the ledger read the document and it does not.

Role at the timeStated
Executive director, AI Futures Project; formerly OpenAI governance team; lead author of AI 2027The Diary of a CEO, OpenAI whistleblower finally speaks: AI has a 70 percent chance of going horribly wrong (episode page), primary source, 13 July 2026.
Where it was saidStated
The Diary of a CEO with Steven Bartlett, released 13 July 2026The Diary of a CEO, OpenAI whistleblower finally speaks: AI has a 70 percent chance of going horribly wrong (episode page), primary source, 13 July 2026.
Timeframe namedStated
None stated for the probabilityThe Singju Post, Transcript of Daniel Kokotajlo interview, Diary of a CEO podcast, secondary source, 13 July 2026.
Stated basisStated
The AI 2027 scenario work and his stated view that current alignment methods do not suffice, as discussed in the episodeThe Singju Post, Transcript of Daniel Kokotajlo interview, Diary of a CEO podcast, secondary source, 13 July 2026.
Later revisionOpen
No later revision found as of 2026-09-16

Figures

Every number, with who measured it and when

  1. 70 percent

    Stated probability that AI development goes horribly wrong, including AI takeover, no timeframe stated

    The Diary of a CEO, OpenAI whistleblower finally speaks: AI has a 70 percent chance of going horribly wrong (episode page), primary source, as of .

What it changes

For a reader deciding how much weight to give a number

This row shows why the outcome definition matters more than the number: the same speaker gives 70 percent and then narrows what it refers to, so a headline that prints 70 percent chance of extinction is printing something he said he does not usually say. A reader should carry the speaker's own definition with the figure, and should note that this is a forecaster's stated credence, published with reasoning that can be read and argued with.

Sources

What this record was verified against

  1. The Diary of a CEO, OpenAI whistleblower finally speaks: AI has a 70 percent chance of going horribly wrong (episode page)Primary · 13 July 2026
  2. The Singju Post, Transcript of Daniel Kokotajlo interview, Diary of a CEO podcastSecondary · 13 July 2026

Related

Records that sit beside this one

Cite this record

Free to reuse under CC BY 4.0, with attribution. The record ID ODDS-2026-0015 is permanent and is never reused.

In a sentence
According to the GAGE Doom Number (as of 16 September 2026), daniel kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, july 2026.
APA
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). (2026). Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026. Doom Number. Retrieved 16 September 2026, from https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0015-daniel-kokotajlo-something-like-70-percent-goes-horribly-wrong-july-2026
MLA
"Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026." Doom Number, GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education), 16 September 2026, https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0015-daniel-kokotajlo-something-like-70-percent-goes-horribly-wrong-july-2026.
Chicago
GAGE (Global Academy of Generative-AI Education). "Daniel Kokotajlo: something like 70 percent that this goes horribly wrong, July 2026." Doom Number. Last modified 16 September 2026. https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0015-daniel-kokotajlo-something-like-70-percent-goes-horribly-wrong-july-2026.
Permalink
https://www.gage.academy/tools/doom-number/records/ODDS-2026-0015-daniel-kokotajlo-something-like-70-percent-goes-horribly-wrong-july-2026

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